There’s something comfortable and fun about the kind armchair predictions about the future that are either too vague to be falsifiable or too far in the future for anybody to hold you to account. It’s a little nervy to make a concrete, falsifiable prediction in the near future, so I do so with some trepidation, but here it goes.
The record-breaking number of missionaries we are currently enjoying is going to peak in the next year or two (or maybe already has), and then start a precipitous decline. You can mark my prediction here.
The reason is not because of a crisis in confidence in the leadership, smartphones, your cousin reading the CES letter, some policy failure of the Seminaries and Institutes Department or, somehow, Donald Trump (since he always manages to make an appearance in every discussion about everything), although I’m sure there will be plenty of shooting-from-the-hip speculations along those lines if the crash comes. Rather, it’s from something much more banal: demographics.
The engine of the Church’s proselytizing is in the 18-20 year old demographic in US, and the Latter-day Saint corridor in particular. In the next couple of years the cohort of 18-20 year olds is going to significantly shrink as a result of the steep drop in childbearing that happened in 2008 in wake of the Great Recession and has persisted since then (I always thought the Great Recession got too much credit for the decline when it was probably going to happen at some point anyway). This is going to be armageddon for smaller, unendowed universities (and maybe not so small ones, the university I occasionally adjunct at just merged the sociology department with economics and education), but in a sense, as goes higher education in the US, so goes the Latter-day Saint missionary force.
In Utah we were hovering at 2.6-2.7, but after the 2008 decline we are now at slightly below replacement 2.1.
If I had to make a less confident, but more numerically precise estimate, one projection has Utah’s college population declining by 6% from 2023-2041, so I’d put my pin there If I had to make a precise prediction. Of course other parameters might change. For example, our retention rate has declined quite a bit between the 2014 and 2025 Pew Religious Landscape Survey. If that trend continues it may be higher than 6% decline. However, I suspect our retention rate has plateaud so I’m staying with a 6% decline, but time will tell.
I might be wrong about our missionary force declining, but it’s hard to fight against demographic waves, so I don’t think I will be.
Comments
18 responses to “Missionary Numbers are Peaking and Will Start to Decline”
I think your prediction is spot-on or even a little optimistic (from the church’s perspective). I think the Pew numbers will have an impact and there seems to be a decline in orthodoxy for many members still on the rolls. I also think violence around the globe may have an effect on missionary service. The Church may slip into revival mode and reinvigorate generation Z and the upcoming generation Alpha, but I have my doubts.
If we are correct, there could be an even greater emphasis on senior missions to fill the gap.
They say numbers don’t lie.
Regarding senior missionaries, well, I don’t know any numbers — but it is true that Americans are retiring later and that more are retiring without pensions, it would seem senior missionary numbers might also drop.
The church will just have to return to calling married fathers of young children. Elders quorums will have to step up and support those families.
Thanks, Stephen. Interesting trends. Of course, we’ll just have to wait and see.
Are we just going to pretend we are a predominantly US based religion for this thought exercise? Internationalization is or will likely take hold. High growth areas will or are counterbalancing potential demographic decline in the US at some point. Pew predicts worldwide numerical growth due to the global South and with the Church’s mission and resources I see no reason to suspect our sect isn’t part of the general growth.
Also predicting the general movement of the LDS Population based on a small window of US led trends and extrapolating is what Stark got wrong.
I appreciate the demographic analysis in this post. But perhaps there are additional factors worth considering.
What happens to the missionary force if, as predicted for this year or next, the number of LDS members in the Spanish-speaking countries of Latin America (6.8M in 2022) exceeds the number of members in the English-speaking countries of North America (7.1M in 2022)? Should we analyze the birth rates in Latin American countries since 2008 to estimate how their contributions to the missionary force over the next decade will vary according to demographics?
What if we consider the birth rates in Africa, which are among the highest in the world? Could an increasing share of the missionary force come from the African continent, which held 934k members around 2022? What happens to your prediction if the number of missionary-age LDS youth there is expected to double over the next decade (from about 110k to 230k)?
What would happen to this prediction if we included an analysis of gender? How would the total number of LDS missionaries change if the share who are female rose from approximately one quarter around 2008 to about a third over the next decade? Would the changing gender composition of the missionary force offset the declining numbers of male missionaries due to lower birth rates since 2008? How would the different age distributions for male and female missionaries, as well as the differences in how long they serve, impact the prediction for the size of the missionary force over the next decade?
I agree with RL and Sterling that this thought may over index for North America (which I understand is the engine of the church’s missionary efforts, but it is becoming less so). From what I’ve read by Matt Martinich at the Cumorah Project, a lot of the recent “surge” is due to significantly higher missionary participation in other countries, particularly the Philippines and the DRC. If I recall correctly, the Philippines has had a 25% YoY increase in missionaries serving (though I could be mis-remembering). The question is if that growth can be sustained and if it will offset the very real decline in North America. The next few decades will be very interesting for sure.
The internationalization of the missionary force is a good point. Here I’m speaking mostly from personal anecdote, as it still seems like the vast bulk of the missionaries in our East Coast ward are still Mormon Corridor-ites in 2025, but presumably that overselects on American missionaries, since a lot of foreign missionaries are called to more local missions.
If Martinich has actual numbers, and there is an accelerating surge from the international contingent, then that surge could in theory offset the post-2008 fertility slump.
I remember on my mission in the late 90s a GA talking about countries that produced more missionaries than required for their country. At that time it was the US, Tonga, and Samoa. Fiji was close but the output peaked during my mission time. I assume in the 00s Mongolia was like that. I’m not sure how many countries have joined that output but would guess many of the 95-99% African mission countries are part of that group. Perhaps other places like the Philippines and PNG. Maybe Mexico and Spanish speaking missionaries could provide more input on those areas.
Regarding my earlier comment on Filipino missionary numbers, here is a quote from November 2023 that Matt Martinich posted: “For example, in the Philippines, the area reached its goal of having 4,600 Filipino YSAs serving full-time missions – something that was quite an achievement as the area was thousands of full-time missionaries short of this goal about a year or so ago. The creation of the three new missions in the Philippines planned for 2024 was only possible due to this goal being reached. Similar progress seems to be occurring in most church areas.” An increase of multiple thousands in about a year in one particular area. A relatively small drop in the bucket when considering total missionary numbers, but if we extrapolate a minimum of 2,000 additional missionaries based on the wording of his comment, that is about one quarter of the total YoY increase coming from the Philippines area. Hopefully that helps.
Who knows what missionary service will look like in the future. We assume the way it is now, sending youth around the world. It started with sending only Apostles, then older men, then younger men, then women, then couples, recently service only missionaries and single older men and women etc. Maybe it will be just members and everyone stays home? That would bring the numbers up a bit. (if we even need to be concerned about the # of missionaries serving)
I find it fascinating that we send someone’s son in Prove to Atlanta and someone’s daughter in Atlanta to Provo. Is it really easier to convert strangers than friends?
I really dont do much “member missionary” stuff as I “served” my mission and leave that to the ones who are “serving” now. I have no desire to serve a senior mission with my wife.
Perhaps if all the missionaries were sent home and we were told the member missionary program is the program, I would do more? Probably not. My neighbors may be even more afraid to speak to me knowing I was a “missionary” and not just a member.
Maybe the harvest is winding down?
The future of missionary work could be interesting.
Latin America has cratering birth rates. I know many African saints. They are full of faith, but there have been major difficulties passing on the leadership baton. I think some of the other commenters might be correct and missionary work will have to change significantly.
This sounds about right to me. Maybe I’m a little more optimistic about the Global South filling some of the gap, but I’m a little more pessimistic about our retention rate.
The next question is what this will do to convert baptisms. If they do decrease, I expect it will be by a good bit less (proportionally) than the missionary numbers. Church media and members will continue to drive referrals, and the missionaries will spend less time finding and more time teaching, which is all to the good.
And yes, demographics are starting to affect universities up the scale. At the state flagship where I work, most of us had smugly assumed we could always get as many students as we wanted. So it came as a surprise a little over a year ago when leadership announced that the student population had peaked and belt-tightening was the order of the day. That immediately manifested in the cancellation of the annual fund for merit pay increases, though oddly enough there was still money for the chancellor’s pet projects. Part of me wonders if they were really anticipating the consequences of Trump being elected (who really does always manage to make an appearance in every discussion about everything, but there’s a reason for that).
“Maybe the harvest is winding down?”
Wow. In world-wide terms, our church accounts for 0.02% of the population.
I think the Church senior leadership has seen this demographical warp for years. It was a factor in why they ultimately lowered the age for sister missionary service back in 2012 from 21 to 19. I’ve sensed ever since then it would ultimately be a compelling factor to raise the expected service time from 18-24 months. This will be a change from what it has been since 1971 when the 18 month service expectation time policy was put into play. While I highly doubt they’ll make sister missionary service expected or compulsory as they have over the years for young men, it’s become increasingly obvious young women getting married in the 18-21 age range is no longer encouraged as it’s been or is perceived. Keep in mind that just over a year ago the Church raised the YSA age range for ward units to age 35, which makes a 2 year mission more possible for 19-25 year old sisters.
Utah doesn’t send out missionaries; the Church does. I don’t think we can analyze general U.S. demographic trends–or even Utah demographic trends–and expect to come up with a good forecast for the missionary program.
According to Pew’s “Religious Landscape Study from early this year, Latter-day Saints have a higher “share who have children under 18 living at home” than any other Christian denomination, by a broad margin. Pew didn’t have enough data to estimate a “completed fertility rate” for Latter-day Saints, but a (very) rough “guesstimate” can probably be put together by observing the relationship between “share who have children under 18 living at home” and “completed fertility rate”–and any reasonably figure would be significantly higher than the 2.1 figure for the state of Utah.
https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/religion-fertility-and-child-rearing/
Laying aside the thoughts other commenters have shared about the rising percentage of missionaries coming from outside the U.S., I’ve got serious doubts about a pending demographic plunge in missionary-age Church members.
The field is white and the harvest has just begun. There is much work to do, and the laborers are more plentiful than at any time in the history of the earth. It is faith and a desire to do the work that are needed, regardless of place and culture, gender or age!
Let me clarify my “harvest is over” deal. What I mean is that there could be less and less people who will listen. You can send a million missionaries out but if fewer and fewer want to listen, the harvest could be winding down.
The mandate is that the gospel is preached to the world, not we must convert the world to comply to the mission mandates.