- Kent Larsen on Church in Contrast: Participation and Meaning in Church (Or What Did Church Lead You to Think About) Yesterday, 7/5?: “Here’s a few of my thoughts in reaction to what I experienced in Church yesterday (7/5): As always, some of the things said in the testimonies given didn’t match my understanding of the gospel. I usually find those testimonies among the most fruitful for thought, since I have to think through what they say and why I don’t agree. Often those speaking are simply not well informed. And I’m glad that they help me improve my understanding of the gospel. One testimony was given by an immigrant, who mentioned how lonely it is when you don’t speak the same language as everyone else. They said “the only thing I need is to have one friend.” What an important idea! Its been said before, but I suspect most of our wards and branches don’t do well with those who are different or who don’t speak the language (even though its common to have RMs in our wards who have served elsewhere — unfortunately many don’t maintain their ability to speak). It isn’t hard to get in the habit of reaching out to people at church who are unfamiliar and make sure that they have someone to talk to. One member gave a testimony for another member who now resides in a care facility. We all knew the testimony because before entering the care facility, that member gave his same testimony every month. It was a little emotional to hear it — oft repeated things become familiar, and end up with emotions tied to them. I would have preferred to have the missing member there, but I was glad to hear the testimony regardless. In the Sunday School lesson, we discussed the “still small voice” passage from 1 Kings, and I realized that the context for the great wind and the earthquake was Elijah escaping the wrath of Ahab and Jezebel. As absolute monarchs they had the ability to take his life. They had the power. In contrast, the Lord displayed that He had even more power, over nature itself in the form of wind, fire and earthquake. BUT THE LORD WAS NOT IN THAT POWER. He was in the still small voice. The power of humans is almost always unrighteous—it is often violent and often takes away the freedom and wellbeing of individuals. The Lord is NOT in such power. Violence is not His way. ” Jul 5, 21:02
- on The Protestant Monopoly: How the Early Saints Tested the Limits of the First Amendment: “But the founders did establish state churches. The First Amendment didn’t prohibit state churches. It prohibited the US Congress from establishing a state church. States (some of them) could and had already and did continue to maintain state churches. Which was perfectly legal, because the US Constitution gave the federal government limited powers, the states the bulk of the powers, and the Bill of Rights wasn’t incorporated to apply to the states until after the 14th Amendment, and then only in bits and pieces, mostly in the 20th Century, and never completely. If a state constitution, the bulwark of the people’s rights, did not prohibit it, then there wasn’t a constitutional prohibition. “Separation of church and state” isn’t in the US Constitution, it was in a letter Thomas Jefferson wrote, and he wasn’t involved in writing the US Constitution because he was busy in Paris bonking French maids. The extreme view that religion must be pushed into the closet in any public setting is an invention of the last half of the 20th Century by the US Supreme Court. The Free Exercise Clause second fiddle now to the Establishment Clause.” Jul 5, 12:21
- on CFM 7/6-7/12: Thoughts and Poetry for “There Is a Prophet in Israel”: “Prophet? Miracles? Nah, not so much. Retroactive Reinterpretations of Events? Yes. Creative Writing? Yes. Mythmakers ? Absolutely. Periodic Lucky Guesses? Sometimes. Visable/Public Failures of Prognostications? Oh my, Yes!” Jul 5, 10:02
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “In my research for a historical novel set in 1915 in which one of the two main characters is a Danish convert struggling to get by on the margins of Salt Lake society, a significant proportion of the people she encounters were once Mormon, but their children are never baptized. My read on this is that just plain choosing to no longer participate was quite common.” Jul 2, 20:17
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “Adam F: As a proportion more people are leaving now than in the past (“the past” being about 20 years ago, beyond that it gets fuzzy). So yes, as the Church becomes larger a larger proportion of people leaving=more ex-members.” Jul 2, 18:28
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “I’ve seen statements indicating somewhere between 40 and 50% of Mormon pioneers in the 19th century who crossed the plains ultimately left the Church (and usually Utah). I wish I could find out where those numbers come from. If true, then it suggests we’ve always struggled with retention, even in members who have sacrificed much to build Zion.” Jul 2, 14:47
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “Very engaging article, Stephen. Thank you. Personally, I have little doubt that the LDS Church will survive; if nothing more than a “religiously based Investment Firm” Heaven knows, they’ve got enough financial resources to weather just about any kind of storm. However, as for being the “Spiritual Platform’ from which so many will base their lives, decisions and relationships to the Divine – I personally believe those days are shrinking….and rather significantly. For me now, the Chruch is pretty hollowed out, banal and empty. Save for the Sacrament – I generally feel no nurishment at all by being there.” Jul 2, 14:28
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “yesterdays “in-actives” are today’s “exmo’s” IMO. Like ji stated, was not easy to get your names removed back in the day. In fact, part of the exmo movement in the last 10+ years was helping people get their name removed because it was so hard or near impossible to do. Now you just need a social media presence and disagree with the church about their version of JS polygamy. ;) 17 mil members – 50% active = 8.5 mil in the pews on any given sunday. (or less) Talk about straight is the gate and narrow is the way….we are a tick on the tail of a horse!” Jul 2, 13:31
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “Do we have any data available to look at relative departure rate, considering with more membership then even if the departure rate remained around the same, the total numbers leaving would of course be larger?” Jul 2, 09:34
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “We have Ex Mormons and former Mormons who don’t seem to have a viable reason to call themselves cultural Mormons anymore because the culture is more and more based on devout exclusive behaviors of belief including full tithing payment, WOW adherence, and Temple worship. We also have purposefully tried to be more of a faith than a people since correlation took over. I can see why we did the trade off but I also see it may be at the cost of conflict with aspects that foster a broader community. Agree with OP it’s a part of broader trends our smaller group is trying to navigate.” Jul 2, 08:23
