- Ron Yorgason on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “Stephen C, I was directed to your Sept 19, 2025 article here, “Missionary Numbers are Peaking and Will Start to Decline.” I’d comment there, but it has already turned off. Your projections on missionary numbers are wrong. Instead of peaking, we’re at kind of a low spot and about to see a massive spike that will keep missionary numbers in the 95-107k range from 2027-2033. While the national and state birth rate did indeed tumble from around 14 babies per 1000 people from 1995-2008, to the 10-12 we’re seeing now, 2008 actually saw a massive spike in LDS babies blessed. It jumped from 93k in 2007 to 123k in 2008! Here are the numbers: YEAR BIRTHS 2005 93,150 2006 94,006 2007 93,698 2008 123,502 2009 119,722 2010 120,528 2011 119,917 2012 122,273 2013 115,486 2014 116,409 2015 114,550 2016 109,246 2017 106,771 2018 102,102 2019 94,266 2020 51,819 2021 89,069 2022 89,059 2023 93,594 2024 91,617 We’ve been seeing about 39-44% of the babies blessed in the church go on to serve missions. But the last couple years there’s been extra hype from leaders and the new age drop for women, it might go as high as 46% for a couple years. Here’s the projection for 44%: 2025 82,590 2026 95,568 2027 107,019 2028 105,710 2029 105,796 2030 106,564 2031 104,614 2032 102,034 2033 101,622 2034 98,470 2035 95,047 2036 91,904 2037 86,402 2038 64,277 Here’s the projection for 39% 2025 73,205 2026 84,708 2027 94,857 2028 93,698 2029 93,774 2030 94,454 2031 92,726 2032 90,439 2033 90,074 2034 87,280 2035 84,247 2036 81,460 2037 76,584 2038 56,973 So, I think we can expect to see between 95k-107k missionaries by 2027, and it will stay there until 2033.” Feb 26, 22:26
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “My biggest concern with the way these new programs are sometimes discussed is the tendency to act as though they introduce principles that never existed before. At times it feels like a kind of institutional amnesia. Take Come, Follow Me, for example. The Church has consistently taught the importance of personal and family scripture study. The primary change wasn’t the introduction of a new principle, but the standardization and alignment of lesson themes to better support home-centered learning. Similarly, Ministering didn’t invent the idea that meaningful contact is more important than simply delivering a lesson. That principle had long been emphasized; the program reframed and streamlined how it was applied. And finally, missionaries have always been taught to teach by the Spirit. That emphasis didn’t suddenly appear in recent updates—it has been foundational for generations. Recognizing continuity alongside change doesn’t diminish the value of new initiatives. In many cases, what we’re seeing is refinement and renewed emphasis, not the creation of entirely new doctrines or principles.” Feb 26, 18:58
- on What Did Church Lead You to Think About Yesterday, 2/22?: “Kent, sorry for the misunderstanding. I meant that it was an outstanding talk that many more people should have heard.” Feb 26, 18:47
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “As a non participant in the LDS Church, but frequent observer of sociological trends I find this post fascinating. My perspective is the the church has been consolidating I around its core members and in doing so knows nonidenticatication as LDS will increase on the periphery. This isn’t a criticism as I actually think it’s the organizationally prudent choice, but it cuts against the notion that programs are meant to increase membership.” Feb 26, 18:22
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “It’s hard to lead, especially big spiritually focused organizations. The church got rid of a program when they axed scouting in the states. I wouldn’t mind a bit more programming for youth support. Bishoprics don’t seem structured to see up youth support in small units especially with the hesitation to fully delegate.I’d also love seminary teachers to get paid everywhere or nowhere. Perpetual education and pathways has been very successful program development in our recent lifetime.” Feb 26, 18:20
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: ““People complain that we never get any new revelation, but when the prophets speak, they hate it and spend decades trying to make them take it back.” Amen and amen.” Feb 26, 16:54
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “SDS, The inspiration was already given long ago, but we don’t pay attention to it (or, perhaps more charitably, we don’t understand it). See D&C 20:68. The Lord envisioned a meaningful time (“sufficient time”) between the separate ordinances of baptism and confirmation, but we (in our zeal?) seem to have combined these into a singularity. I wish we would go back and do it like the Lord already instructed.” Feb 26, 15:23
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “Interesting post, interesting question, interesting comments. As someone who served in a mission in which the “finding days” were Monday through Thursday for baptisms on Sunday, and hardly anyone baptized had previously attended church at all (and a not insignificant number never did attend a Sacrament Meeting, before or after baptism), I think requiring attendance at 9 meetings sounds like a wonderful idea. Maybe even an inspired one. :)” Feb 26, 14:56
- on New Program Fatigue in the Church: “I think perhaps one takes the name of the Lord in vain when we claim revelation (and thus, God’s imprimatur) for his or her own decision. And even if revelation does occur, we cannot cite that revelation (or our higher rank in the church’s hierarchal structure) to impose that decision on others — our God asks us to use patience, brotherly kindness, persuasion, love unfeigned, and so forth.” Feb 26, 13:54
