I wanted to wait an appropriate span after the death of President Holland to start speculating about the downstream implications of his passing for the future leadership of the Church, so here it is. Obviously the image is AI generated and I don’t claim any special insight into who would constitute the First Presidency in the event of an Uchtdorf Presidency, but if I had to parlay a guess a Christofferson/Bednar would make the most sense logically for continuity (Christofferson) and training for the presidency (Bednar), but who knows who he’d be inspired to call.
While they have the worst possible blog name for traffic, Zelophehad’s Daughters always does great actuarial analyses about the probabilities of who will become Church President, and they recently redid their analysis to take into account the passing of President Holland. The analysis puts Uchtdorf’s chances at 59%.
However, “Ziff” recognizes that that’s likely an underestimate. Actuarial tables use averages and don’t take into account signs of aging that we can see with our eyes. I’m not a gerontologist, but the fact is that President Oaks and President Eyring are both clearly starting to show the signs of aging that are often indicative of an increasingly steep downhill slide (the use of wheelchairs, slower speaking, etc.). Although neither of them, as far as I’m aware, have started spending significant time in hospitals, which is usually a sign the end is really, really near. Barring an unexpected Harold B. Lee-type heart attack I have a hard time seeing either Oaks or Eyring outliving Uchtdorf, so my gut would put his chances at 80%+ at this point.
So what does that mean?
I’ve already written about the Uchtdorf-as-liberal hypothesis, and we haven’t really received any additional data points since then. Basically, the liberal European stereotype does a lot of heavy lifting for that idea (because, you know, Germans aren’t ever traditional or conservative).*
I doubt he was ever a fan of, say, Tim Ballard or Donald Trump, but beyond that it’s fairly speculative. At one point he was sort of the great white hope for ProgMos as the one that would usher in an era of female ordination and same-sex sealings, but my vibe is that there’s much less speculation to that effect as it has dawned on everybody just how conservative the top echelons are. The brethren hold their cards pretty close to their chest in terms of public rhetoric, so we have to suss it out from policies, but I suspect that “liberal” for a member of the 12 is probably more on the moderate side for members, it doesn’t mean “liberal” as in Episcopalian. Under an Uchtdorf presidency I doubt we’ll see open attacks against Trump or ICE coming from the pulpit or a special General Conference session on global warming.
So I think he will bring a measure of cosmopolitanism and nuance as somebody born, raised, and developed outside the Mormon Corridor and with his background, but I don’t see any major doctrinal innovations. He is German after all.
*In the original post I engaged in a little side speculation about him being a Czech German and how the brutal ethnic cleansing of the Sudeten Germans post-World War II (as in, the President of Czechoslovakia literally calling for a “final solution of the German question”) might have influenced his perspective on things, but it was pointed out in the comments that, while he was born in Czechoslovakia, his family was not Sudeten.
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8 responses to “Dieter F. Uchtdorf, [Probable Future] President of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints”
German – Pilot – Pres = Love it!
I met him shortly after he was called and is as nice as you would think. I just like his positive and uplifting attitude in his conference talks.
I think he’s the most well known current apostle and he seems to come from a place that resonates with many-where he was not part of the religious majority. Excellent modern speaker.
During COVID I was living in Germany and we tuned in for a meeting with him and his wife where he spoke in German and it was translated. 2 things I remember.
1. He talked about how bad American chocolate was and that he brings back suitcases of his favorite chocolate from the grocery story. He didn’t say the name but showed a piece and it was the Lindt brand.
2. His wife said something I think about regularly, “The Church is a place where we practice being Christians.” Simple and profound.
I want more Oaks time to learn and see where he helps steer the ship but look forward to future leadership and input by others..
There’s also the fact that Uchtdorf clearly donated money to the Biden campaign in 2020—which he then tried to play off like it was a relative who did it when he got some conservative backlash, but come on, it was clearly him. (Of course as a German born during WWII, as you’ve noted, it makes perfect sense why he’d oppose a wannabe-dictator in the first place; he’d know the warning signs better than anyone.) Even if a donation for Biden only indicates that he is merely a moderate liberal at best, that still puts him to the left of at least 60% of the active U.S. church membership.
Hence why I think the church’s liberals are still not completely out of line to hope he’d be a more progressive church president, at least comparatively (though you’re probably right that an Uchtdorf presidency still wouldn’t result in, say, gay sealings or female ordination—though that’s partly cause he’d be outnumbered in the Q15 anyways).
Twenty-one years ago the Times and Seasons web site was still in its first year of operation when Neal Maxwell and David Haight died in July and the church sustained Dieter Uchtdorf and David Bednar as apostles in October 2004. This was the first change in the Quorum of the Twelve since Howard Hunter had died and Henry B. Eyring was called nine years previously. A short note of Uchtdorf and Bednar’s calling as apostles was posted here, and dozens of comments followed.
The current Quorum of the Twelve have now all become known to us in the time of internet communication and social media.
https://archive.timesandseasons.org/2004/10/new-apostles-uchtdorf-bednar/
Being born in Ostrava does not make Pres. Uchtdorf a Sudenten-German. His father, Karl, was born in a small village in Saxony about 150 km west of Berlin, and his mother was born in Zwickau, a city in Saxony. They married in Zwickau, and they had children (all older than Pres. Uchtdorf) born in Zwickau, Berlin and Neustrelitz, a city in Mecklenburg, north of Berlin. Karl was a German customs officer, and it seems likely that he was posted to Ostrava after Sudetenland was absorbed into the German Reich. The family left after Karl was conscripted into the German army, and moved to Zwickau, which makes sense as it was Pres. Uchtdorf’s mother’s hometown. They were joined there by Karl after the war ended.
Thanks for the correction, I’ve modified the OP accordingly.
I am hopeful for an Uchtdorf presidency as I appreciate his kindness and optimism, but three factors temper my hope:
1. He is already old, and is getting older. He may not have the strength or fortitude to make much of an impression or to make a Pope Francis sort of pastoral impression on the curia.
2. He will not be president for very long. He may not have time to make much of an impression.
3. He will certainly be followed by Elder Bednar for quite a long period. For some reason, I tend to think a Bednar presidency will be a return to Joseph Fielding Smith and Bruce R. McConkie dogmatism and legalism (but I could be wrong).
I do think dear Uchtdorf is tired and a bit church broke, and very home sick.
I wouldn’t wish it on him, he’s made a massive contribution in uplifting us and refining the church’s thinking, and bringing us closer to the Saviour. I so hope others build on his legacy.