- Not a Cougar on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “I’ve seen statements indicating somewhere between 40 and 50% of Mormon pioneers in the 19th century who crossed the plains ultimately left the Church (and usually Utah). I wish I could find out where those numbers come from. If true, then it suggests we’ve always struggled with retention, even in members who have sacrificed much to build Zion.” Jul 2, 14:47
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “Very engaging article, Stephen. Thank you. Personally, I have little doubt that the LDS Church will survive; if nothing more than a “religiously based Investment Firm” Heaven knows, they’ve got enough financial resources to weather just about any kind of storm. However, as for being the “Spiritual Platform’ from which so many will base their lives, decisions and relationships to the Divine – I personally believe those days are shrinking….and rather significantly. For me now, the Chruch is pretty hollowed out, banal and empty. Save for the Sacrament – I generally feel no nurishment at all by being there.” Jul 2, 14:28
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “yesterdays “in-actives” are today’s “exmo’s” IMO. Like ji stated, was not easy to get your names removed back in the day. In fact, part of the exmo movement in the last 10+ years was helping people get their name removed because it was so hard or near impossible to do. Now you just need a social media presence and disagree with the church about their version of JS polygamy. ;) 17 mil members – 50% active = 8.5 mil in the pews on any given sunday. (or less) Talk about straight is the gate and narrow is the way….we are a tick on the tail of a horse!” Jul 2, 13:31
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “Do we have any data available to look at relative departure rate, considering with more membership then even if the departure rate remained around the same, the total numbers leaving would of course be larger?” Jul 2, 09:34
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “We have Ex Mormons and former Mormons who don’t seem to have a viable reason to call themselves cultural Mormons anymore because the culture is more and more based on devout exclusive behaviors of belief including full tithing payment, WOW adherence, and Temple worship. We also have purposefully tried to be more of a faith than a people since correlation took over. I can see why we did the trade off but I also see it may be at the cost of conflict with aspects that foster a broader community. Agree with OP it’s a part of broader trends our smaller group is trying to navigate.” Jul 2, 08:23
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “What I see more of a hundred years back is Jack Dempsey’s type of identification, “I’m proud to be a Mormon and ashamed to be the Jack Mormon that I am.” Tenuous connection that would have most today saying “I used to be Mormon” or “I grew up in a Mormon family” would a hundred years ago cause many to say “Yeah, I’m a Mormon” even if they were living lives like Dempsey’s with no connection to the Church. That tenuous connection even got passed down to some portion of their children for generations (the “survivors”). I suspect that for nonreligious Mormons a hundred years ago, closer to the hardships of the 19th Century, ceasing to identify as Mormon at all would have felt like a betrayal a bit like a Jew denying his identity.” Jul 2, 07:52
- on Regression to the Mean, Survivorship Bias, and Staying in the Church: “I’m not a social scientist of any sort, and I cannot provide empirical data, but surely there were people “leaving the church” in the old days — perhaps they were less likely to remove their names from the rolls, but couldn’t they “withdraw” or “retire” from active church participation and even belief while remaining culturally Mormon? As I understand from the old handbook, one really couldn’t remove his or her name from the rolls in the old days — such a request would result in a disciplinary council. The disciplinary council might result in an excommunication, but the handbook instructed leaders to conduct the council to record the facts, and then the council record would be reviewed if there was a subsequent request for re-admission. Anyway, my point is that formally leaving the church was very difficult in the old days.” Jul 2, 05:05
- on Mormon Writing and History Awards: 2026: “Okay. I’ll make an update for that. Thanks, Kent!” Jul 1, 23:50
- on Cutting Edge Latter-day Saint Research, June 2026: “Of course! This month was a gold mine…” Jul 1, 11:32
- on Cutting Edge Latter-day Saint Research, June 2026: “Thanks, again, Stephen. I always look forward to these round-ups.” Jul 1, 08:53
