{"id":4856,"date":"2008-11-05T10:19:02","date_gmt":"2008-11-05T14:19:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/?p=4856"},"modified":"2013-12-21T09:49:37","modified_gmt":"2013-12-21T14:49:37","slug":"prop-8-likely-to-pass","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/2008\/11\/prop-8-likely-to-pass\/","title":{"rendered":"Prop 8 Likely to Pass"},"content":{"rendered":"

I haven’t found a news<\/a> organization <\/a>that’s called Prop 8 yet, and CNN’s exit polling showed it failing 48%-52%, but my county-by-county analysis of the remaining vote indicates that it will likely pass. With 93.6% of precincts reporting state wide, Prop 8 is leading by 406,519 votes (4.1%), and almost all of the precincts yet to be tallied are in counties that have favored Prop 8 by good margins.<\/p>\n

According to data available from CNN<\/a> and the office of California’s Secretary of State<\/a>, there are uncounted ballots in only ten of California’s 58 counties:<\/p>\n

Imperial<\/b> (96% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 22,653
\nYes: 70%
\nNo: 30%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +376<\/b><\/p>\n

Kings<\/b> (95% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 31,915
\nYes: 74%
\nNo: 26%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +800<\/b><\/p>\n

Monterey<\/b> (65% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 72,382
\nYes: 49%
\nNo: 51%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: -1130<\/b><\/p>\n

Riverside<\/b> (69% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 240,055
\nYes: 63%
\nNo: 37%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +28,412<\/b><\/p>\n

San Benito<\/b> (95% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 7,487
\nYes: 55%
\nNo: 45%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +137<\/b><\/p>\n

San Bernadino<\/b> (54% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 332,518
\nYes: 68%
\nNo: 32%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +99,614<\/b><\/p>\n

San Diego<\/b> (93% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 899,326
\nYes: 54%
\nNo: 46%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +5,360<\/b><\/p>\n

Santa Clara<\/b> (78% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 438,899
\nYes: 45%
\nNo: 55%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: -13,427<\/b><\/p>\n

Tulare<\/b> (98% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 78,297
\nYes: 75%
\nNo: 25%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +910<\/b><\/p>\n

Yolo<\/b> (83% reporting)
\nVotes counted: 58,716
\nYes: 59%
\nNo: 41%
\nProjected effect of oustanding precincts: +2,073<\/b><\/p>\n

According to this model, the uncounted ballots should break in favor of Prop 8 in each county save Monterey and Santa Clara, securing another 100,000 votes and passing by 52%-48%.<\/p>\n

Note: All percentages rounded. The “projected effect” presumes that each county’s uncounted precincts are the same average size as those already counted.<\/p>\n

[posted 9:19 EST]
\n[updated 9:52 EST]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

I haven’t found a news organization that’s called Prop 8 yet, and CNN’s exit polling showed it failing 48%-52%, but my county-by-county analysis of the remaining vote indicates that it will likely pass. With 93.6% of precincts reporting state wide, Prop 8 is leading by 406,519 votes (4.1%), and almost all of the precincts yet to be tallied are in counties that have favored Prop 8 by good margins.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[55],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4856","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news-politics"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4856","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4856"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4856\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":28493,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4856\/revisions\/28493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4856"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4856"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4856"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}