{"id":46136,"date":"2023-12-14T05:00:16","date_gmt":"2023-12-14T12:00:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/?p=46136"},"modified":"2023-12-15T10:19:46","modified_gmt":"2023-12-15T17:19:46","slug":"are-latter-day-saints-more-republican-because-of-where-they-live","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/2023\/12\/are-latter-day-saints-more-republican-because-of-where-they-live\/","title":{"rendered":"Are Latter-day Saints More Republican Because of Where We Live?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"
\n“Democrat Mormon” per Dalle-3<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"“Republican Mormon” per Dalle-3<\/em><\/p>\n

I’ve always had this hypothesis in the back of my mind that Latter-day Saints actually aren’t as politically red as we might think, and that some of our Republican-ism is an artifact of the fact that we live in Republican areas. If Latter-day Saints all lived in, say, Manhattan they’d be liberal, if they all lived in Alabama they’d be conservative.<\/p>\n

I finally got around to running the numbers, and it looks like no, we actually are just very Republican.<\/p>\n

**Wonk start**<\/p>\n

I used the 2022 Comprehensive Election Study data to test the mediating effect of geography on the Latter-day Saint coefficient in a logit model for predicting whether somebody self-identified as a Republican. Below are the regression analyses. As seen, it barely moved the Latter-day Saint coefficient at all. Additionally, switching out Republican for Independent yields insignificant results (not shown), so we’re actually not any more likely to be Independents. So at least at this 30,000 foot view, there isn’t evidence for much of an anti-Trump, disgusted former-Republican Latter-day Saint effect.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

**Wonk end**<\/p>\n

So hypothesis rejected. We really are just Republican, and not just because we happen to largely live in the non-urban West. In this sample about 31% of the respondents identified as Republican when presented with the options of Republican, Democrat, Independent, and Other, whereas for Latter-day Saints it was 51%.<\/p>\n

***Code<\/p>\n

df <- read_dta(“~\/Desktop\/CCES22_Common_OUTPUT_vv_topost.dta”)<\/p>\n

df$LDS<-ifelse(df$religpew==3, 1, 0)<\/p>\n

df$Republican<-ifelse(df$CC22_433a==2 ,1, 0)<\/p>\n

df$Independent_Other<-ifelse((df$CC22_433a==3) | (df$CC22_433a==4) ,1, 0)<\/p>\n

modelX<-glm(df$Independent_Other~df$Republican + df$LDS, family=”binomial”, weights=df$commonweight) model1<-glm(df$Republican~df$LDS, family=”binomial”, weights=df$commonweight)<\/p>\n

model2<-glm(df$Republican~df$LDS + as.factor(df$inputstate),family=”binomial”, weights=df$commonweight) stargazer(model1, model2, type = “html”, out = “~\/Desktop\/regression_RepublicanID.html”, digits = 1, star.cutoffs = c(0.05, 0.01, 0.001))<\/p>\n

****Addendum from comments below.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

df <- read_dta(“dataverse_files\/cumulative_2006-2022.dta”)<\/p>\n

df$LDS<-ifelse(df$religion==3, 1, 0)<\/p>\n

#For some reason “Don’t know” only has n=3, remove for now.<\/p>\n

df$pid7[df$pid7 == 9] <- NA<\/p>\n

MoSample<-subset(df, LDS==1)<\/p>\n

X<-round(crosstab(df = MoSample, x = year, y = pid7, weight = weight_cumulative),0)<\/p>\n

write.xlsx(X, “\/Desktop\/MoStats.xlsx”)<\/p>\n

MoSample$BeforeTrump<-ifelse(MoSample$year<2016, 1, 0)<\/p>\n

Y<-round(crosstab(df = MoSample, x = BeforeTrump, y = pid7, weight = weight_cumulative),0)<\/p>\n

write.xlsx(Y, “Desktop\/MoStats_Dich.xlsx”)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

“Democrat Mormon” per Dalle-3 “Republican Mormon” per Dalle-3 I’ve always had this hypothesis in the back of my mind that Latter-day Saints actually aren’t as politically red as we might think, and that some of our Republican-ism is an artifact of the fact that we live in Republican areas. If Latter-day Saints all lived in, say, Manhattan they’d be liberal, if they all lived in Alabama they’d be conservative. I finally got around to running the numbers, and it looks like no, we actually are just very Republican. **Wonk start** I used the 2022 Comprehensive Election Study data to test the mediating effect of geography on the Latter-day Saint coefficient in a logit model for predicting whether somebody self-identified as a Republican. Below are the regression analyses. As seen, it barely moved the Latter-day Saint coefficient at all. Additionally, switching out Republican for Independent yields insignificant results (not shown), so we’re actually not any more likely to be Independents. So at least at this 30,000 foot view, there isn’t evidence for much of an anti-Trump, disgusted former-Republican Latter-day Saint effect. **Wonk end** So hypothesis rejected. We really are just Republican, and not just because we happen to largely live in […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10403,"featured_media":46137,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[55],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-politics"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/3c4277c7-1c5c-4ed9-ae0b-5a4b031ca590.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46136","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10403"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46136"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46136\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46157,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46136\/revisions\/46157"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46137"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46136"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46136"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46136"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}