{"id":46077,"date":"2023-12-01T19:17:54","date_gmt":"2023-12-02T02:17:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/?p=46077"},"modified":"2023-12-01T21:25:53","modified_gmt":"2023-12-02T04:25:53","slug":"how-much-longer-will-president-nelson-live","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/2023\/12\/how-much-longer-will-president-nelson-live\/","title":{"rendered":"How Much Longer Will President Nelson Live?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/span><\/p>\n

President Nelson could very well become the first centenarian President of the Church. But what\u2019s the chance of that? What about the chance of reaching 101?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

For him to be the oldest General Authority of all time he would have to live to be over 106, the age that Patriarch Emeritus Eldred G. Smith<\/a> reached. And of course, there is the chance that he could reach \u201csupercentenarian\u201d status at 110, and be the President of the Church when my grandchildren are born.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

While many public life tables are \u201cright censored\u201d at the high end, e.g. they stop at a certain number and then just say \u201cand above,\u201d <\/span>there is some data on year-by-year longevity at extreme ages. <\/span><\/a>While the work below\u00a0is not nearly as complex and sophisticated as, say, the excellent work <\/span>done over at<\/span><\/a> Zelephohad\u2019s Daughters, it provides more detailed insight into a single individual.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A disclaimer: I firmly believe that President Nelson will pass on when God decides it is time for him to pass on, and I don\u2019t mean to be macabre. Still, that is not to say that dynamics discussed here are irrelevant. God works through the natural world and natural trends.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So let\u2019s get into it. The \u201cRisk of dying during age X\u201d column is taken directly from the Social Security Administration numbers linked above. I then chained the probabilities of survival from year to year to get the probability of living until age x + 1 <\/span>given that he has already reached 99<\/span><\/i>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

According to the life table and these estimates, President Nelson has a life expectancy of about two more years, with a one out of three risk of dying before 100 once he turned 99. However, he has a less than even chance of living to 101, a less than a one-in-four chance of living to 102, and a one-in-one hundred chance of making it to Patriarch Smith\u2019s age when he passed away. Finally, he has less than a one-tenth of a 1% chance of making it to supercentenarian status.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Age<\/span><\/td>\nRisk of dying during age X assuming they have lived to age X<\/span><\/td>\nProbability of living until age X+1<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
99<\/span><\/td>\n0.37<\/span><\/td>\n0.63<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
100<\/span><\/td>\n0.38<\/span><\/td>\n0.39<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
101<\/span><\/td>\n0.40<\/span><\/td>\n0.23<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
102<\/span><\/td>\n0.42<\/span><\/td>\n0.13<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
103<\/span><\/td>\n0.45<\/span><\/td>\n0.07<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
104<\/span><\/td>\n0.47<\/span><\/td>\n0.04<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
105<\/span><\/td>\n0.49<\/span><\/td>\n0.02<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
106<\/span><\/td>\n0.52<\/span><\/td>\n0.01<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
107<\/span><\/td>\n0.54<\/span><\/td>\n0.0044<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
108<\/span><\/td>\n0.57<\/span><\/td>\n0.0019<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
109<\/span><\/td>\n0.60<\/span><\/td>\n0.0008<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
110<\/span><\/td>\n0.63<\/span><\/td>\n0.0003<\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

President Nelson could very well become the first centenarian President of the Church. But what\u2019s the chance of that? What about the chance of reaching 101?\u00a0 For him to be the oldest General Authority of all time he would have to live to be over 106, the age that Patriarch Emeritus Eldred G. Smith reached. And of course, there is the chance that he could reach \u201csupercentenarian\u201d status at 110, and be the President of the Church when my grandchildren are born.\u00a0 While many public life tables are \u201cright censored\u201d at the high end, e.g. they stop at a certain number and then just say \u201cand above,\u201d there is some data on year-by-year longevity at extreme ages. While the work below\u00a0is not nearly as complex and sophisticated as, say, the excellent work done over at Zelephohad\u2019s Daughters, it provides more detailed insight into a single individual.\u00a0 A disclaimer: I firmly believe that President Nelson will pass on when God decides it is time for him to pass on, and I don\u2019t mean to be macabre. Still, that is not to say that dynamics discussed here are irrelevant. God works through the natural world and natural trends.\u00a0 So let\u2019s get into […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10403,"featured_media":46080,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2970],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46077","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-church-leadership-and-policies"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/12\/russell_nelson_official_portrait_2018.webp","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46077","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10403"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=46077"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46077\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":46085,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/46077\/revisions\/46085"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/46080"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=46077"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=46077"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=46077"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}