{"id":44134,"date":"2022-12-28T06:47:11","date_gmt":"2022-12-28T14:47:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/?p=44134"},"modified":"2025-05-28T07:42:26","modified_gmt":"2025-05-28T13:42:26","slug":"superforecasting-the-church-for-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/timesandseasons.org\/index.php\/2022\/12\/superforecasting-the-church-for-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Superforecasting the Church for 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"

Note: After this post went live and the organizer reached out to me, some of these specific predictions were added to an actual prediction market<\/a> at Manifold Markets.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

In the past public predictions usually took the form of some pundit making a prognistication about an event that was going to happen years in the future, and by the time the prediction was falsifiable everybody had either moved on or the prediction was so vague as to be non-falisifable. However, recently the \u201csuperforecasting\u201d movement<\/a><\/span>\u00a0has turned armchair theorizing into a systematic science, with predictors being graded on their accuracy after making predictions that are clearly definable and falsifiable. One manifestation of this movement are prediction markets<\/a><\/span>, where people literally bet money on clearly defined events happening or not happening, and with actual money on the line, people do really deep dive research.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So I thought it would be fun to do my own superforecasting competition for the Church in 2023. The rule is that the question has to be defined clearly enough to be demonstrably true or untrue within the time horizon. Here I\u2019ll give percentages. I don\u2019t claim to be a superforecaster, I\u2019m not spending a ton of time on quantifying trends and the like, and no money is on the line, but I\u2019ll check back on my accuracy around this time next year.\u00a0<\/span><\/b><\/p>\n