With the advent of on-demand, free porn virtually everybody has access to a level of sexual novelty, variety, and frequency that an ancient emperor could have only dreamed of. The invention of the VCR allowed for people to view pornographic material without having to go to a seedy inner-city theater; the invention of fast Internet and streaming allowed for even more on-demand accessibility and choices for anyone with an Internet connection; and the advent of Youtube-type services for pornography centralized the options and made them even more cheap and accessible. I believe that with the combination of AI and VR we are entering another stage, and that by 2080 (if not much sooner) it is likely that we’ll be at a place where anybody can have any photo-realistic scenario they could think of in front of them whenever they want.
I suspect that each step towards availability has had serious implications for the men in society (and yes, women view porn too, but virtually every survey shows that this is disproportionately a male issue). During the early pornography debates conservatives feared that pornography would whet the sexual appetite of men and lead to all sorts of debauchery and violence, while pro-pornography liberals believed it would lead to liberation and more sex, but I think both sides turned out to be wrong: instead it appears to have muffled out partnered sexuality. People can now have at least a simulacra of sexuality without putting in the efforts classically involved in attracting a partner such as committing to someone, getting a job, or at the very least trying to become appealing.
Given how powerful the sex drive is for many people, I suspect that this was one of the most powerful motivations for teens and 20-something guys to get their acts together, whether through family or a career, and that some of the sex famine we’re going through is due to the fact that there are easy alternatives which, while not real thing, are close enough for many. (This is the kind of thing that is hard to causally demonstrate empirically for various reasons, so here I’m taking my social scientist hat off and enjoying the added speculative flexibility of blogging). Of course, there are asexual people, but recognizing that advances in VR and AI are going to make pornographic temptations more enticing for my grandchildren is not being preoccupied with sex, it’s just recognizing the reality of the sex drive in the motivations and life decisions for many people.
Before 2080 I believe we’ll see the same thing along multiple axes, not just with pornography. I suspect most people don’t stop going to church because they have some high minded moral indignation against some aspect of this or that doctrine or teaching (although some do), but rather because they just simply found more enjoyable ways to spend a Sunday afternoon, and such alternatives are continually multiplying and becoming more enticing. As developments in technology make the home theaters of today seem like Pac Man, it will become increasingly more difficult to convince people to come and sit in church (or read a large, difficult work of literature for that matter). We’re definitely seeing a version of that now, with many people more involved in what Twitter has to say than their fellow ward members at church, and it will just get worse as our technology becomes the soma for our own Brave New World.
However, I believe the ashes of the old ways will form the fertilizer for the future Church. As the opportunity costs to Church participation and devotion grow, there will be a selection effect, and the only people going to church will be the ones sincerely, fiercely, and independently devout, because there will be too many distractions otherwise for people to go to church purely based on momentum or culture, but eventually people will realize that the only thing more powerful than soma is devotion to a God.
Fantastic insights. One of my fav articles you’ve written. Thanks!
Good stuff Stephen. I think the only people going to church in the future will be all the same pretenders that go to be seen in church today…mingled with the devoted that you mention. I home churched for as long as possible as I figured this chance would probably never come my way again. Best. Church. Ever! I now know what worship is, or at least I think I do until I get more insights. Devotion to God can be so much more than what we mormons typically do on sunday. I dont think we know what “worship” even means in our church. But that’s for your next article! :)
I think its really important for our youth to start dating younger and learning what healthy relationships are when they are young and get more slack when they screw up. The group dating era in the church made men lazy and gay. (Not that there is anything wrong with that) Everyone is different, but if our YM know what it is like to hold, kiss and love girls, they will get jobs and do what it takes to be with them. Those girls will encourage them to serve missions. Half of those will come back and marry said girl. Jesus is there throughout it all if they screw up. Great program actually. I am describing the 80s. This is what we did. The girls in the church will get asked out and feel good about themselves. Yes society has changed since the 80’s, my kids tell me that all the time. I tell them their way sucks! Our way back them was so much easier. Everyone dated it seemed. All good natural God-given thing to do.
We were so worried that our youth would sin, we prevented it. (group dating only and no relationships until after missions crap) What did they learn? How to play video games, hang out, be selfish, turn gay, be entitled etc….It was a blessing for me to feel what sin felt like as a youth and a bigger blessing to know what forgiveness felt like. The atonement was real to me, it worked as described. I am glad I did that before I made serious promises inside the temple and I personally think this has helped me keep those promises through my current old age.
Porn wasn’t everywhere in the 80s but I enjoyed my real relationship with my girlfriend so I didn’t have much desire/pull/interest in porn. The church villainized porn and masturbation so much in the 80s and 90s I think local leaders went to far on making youth feel horrible about it. As a bishop when the youth were brave enough to talk to me about this, I told them congratulations, you are normal and its not a serious sin. This gave me opportunity to warn them of what is serious sin and the heartbreak that follows it but also the power of the atonement.
In summary; put down the devices and go touch (good way) a real person of the opposite sex when your young! :)
I don’t think that it’s going to be pornography and opportunity costs, but sex bots. Slowly, men unable to find a woman will find themselves satisfied with a robot. I’ve seriously wondered if what the future holds is if a man is a desirable husband it will be normal for him to have two wives, while the men who are not husband material are happy with a robot girlfriend that they don’t have to put effort into.
which would help the scripture that says that in the end of time, 7 women will want the same man…or something like it…because few men will not want real women.
I figured that this would happen because so many women in the church today are single and younger men are leaving the church. Robot woman will just help that issue along.
With polygamy I suspect most women would rather be single than be a plural wife, with maybe some exceptions for elite males for some women, but whatever the case this clearly isn’t going to be good for the marriage market.
The robot technology is less impressive right now than the chatbot technology, so it’s hard to know when a completely realistic sex robot will come online, but 50 years is a long time so who knows.
What we do have coming up is:
“Girlfriend” or “boyfriend” chatbots: if somebody reduces the response time for GPT-4 and hacks the code to get rid of the filters, then a companion chatbot like in the movie “Her” is already here.
Photorealistic custom porn for still images: technologically this is already here with Midjourney V5. Thankfully MJ V5 also has filters, but it’s just a matter of time before a non-filtered open source version comes out and non-consensual porn will be a much, much bigger issue than it is now.
Photorealistic VR: This one is still a ways off, but it’s somewhat plausible; it’s not faster-than-light travel.
Text-to-movie: There are some versions of this out, but they’re still underdeveloped. I could see this being a thing in a couple years to a decade.
Yes, AI is going to be good at porn, precisely because it is meaningless and predictable. I’d guess integrating VR and programmable sex toys into porn will come before sex robots. Is it a silver lining if partnered sex becomes something people only do in the context of a meaningful relationship because the alternative is so appealing?
I predict that long before 2080, guidelines for healthy use of media will become as common as guidelines for healthy eating. Hopefully that will help restore America’s attention span and ability to read complex literature, which I agree is lacking. But whatever happens, the Church will adapt, just like it now produces media similar to current secular media on a regular basis. Not to mention cutting church services from three hours to two. But there will always be a tension between having wonderful services produced by the most talented people available and giving all the members opportunities to prepare talks and lessons. I suspect in many cases the preparation process produces more growth and learning for the one person doing the preparation than the most professional presentation would for the entire congregation combined.
We’ll see, but I don’t think the appeal of media will be a major factor in reducing the size of the Church–and I doubt Stephen C will get his wish for a much smaller Church where everyone agrees with him. :) (I’m kidding…mostly.)
Lol, you’ll always have a place in my pew RLD.
I’ve actually thought about that silver lining. For example, I suspect a decline in the demand for sex workers would have myriad benefits for society.
That point about the tension between having the most appealing meetings while giving everybody a chance to contribute is a good one that I hadn’t thought about before.