Comments on: PRRI Poll Numbers on Mormons https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/ Truth Will Prevail Sun, 05 Aug 2018 23:56:25 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 By: randomthoughtsbyamarriedwoman https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542702 Sun, 24 Sep 2017 00:48:55 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542702 Interesting. I am not good at interpreting surveys. What I see by the graph is that the numbers with high 18 to 29 numbers are religions that have, for the most part, very strict upbringing and don’t usually leave the home of their parents until marriage. It might be unwise, therefore to state any other belief than your parents. Also, in my area of the country, Muslims have high birth rate. I noticed that the white catholic has the lowest number for the 18 yo 29 year old. Probably due to much more freedom that is tolerated by their parents.

What I most notice is that those that had low 18 to 29, there are higher numbers for the child rearing years, which seems to suggest the wanting to raise the children how they were raised. If that is correct than I would suggest that we need to make good memories for our children so that they want to raise their children how they themselves were raised.

Birth rates of the various groups need to be considered as well as the strictness or closeness of the family life, divorce rates, etc.. I think the best way to retain our youth is family closeness and parents always setting the example and trying not to be hypocrites (that is a total turnoff for our youth).

What worries me most is the low numbers for the old and closer to death. How can that be?

I admit I didn’t read the study, just looked at the graph.

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By: Wally https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542613 Fri, 08 Sep 2017 16:13:03 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542613 Or to “whet” your appetite perhaps?

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542612 Fri, 08 Sep 2017 15:44:20 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542612 Yeah that was a weird article when it came out. I remember people discussing it a little. It seems like it’s a discussion of the Nones and the high rate among 18-25 year olds of religious disaffiliation. (Is Gen Z really a thing now?) When did the Newsroom start doing a category called “commentary” which seem like op eds? In this case the main focus seems to be explaining the push to use social media as a strategy here. That appears to be a formal strategy of the church although I’m skeptical it’ll have a huge effect. My sense is that what’s driving people to the Nones isn’t the lack of church in social media.

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By: James Olsen https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542599 Fri, 08 Sep 2017 10:55:27 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542599 Sorry if I missed someone else posting this, but it’s interesting that the Church just came out with a Newsroom article on Nones among our youth. They make it a society wide trend (which it is), but they do feature, quote from, and refrain from disparaging an LDS None. I can’t say much for the article’s analysis, it’s constant pairing of data or quotes by Nones with contrary quotes from church authorities or scholars, or the simplicity of its prescription (social media!); rather, the significance is the article itself and its tone (note the title):

http://www.mormonnewsroom.org/article/insight-religious-none-generation-z

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542581 Thu, 07 Sep 2017 04:43:48 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542581 Brian. Sorry I chose the phrase “current generation” poorly. I meant 18-25 year olds of which 34% are unaffiliated. I should have said current new generation.

Eric, that actually makes sense. Although that would imply the numbers here don’t break out types of Mormon. It’s weird as typically the header is he sum of the subcategories such as for historically black protestant which is then broken down into baptist, methodist, etc. But for Mormon the header is 1.6% and then two subcategories of 1.6% and < 0.3%. I assume you're right that they just added them together but I think < 0.3% just means so small that the total was still 1.6%. I'd never noticed that before with the Pew data. I'm not quite sure what fully to make of it. In any case, I think they read it wrong if I understand it correctly.

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By: Brian https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542579 Thu, 07 Sep 2017 02:18:25 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542579 “To the point that more than a third of the current generation are unaffiliated.”

I don’t understand how you came to this conclusion. From the data you provide, it appears that while more than a third of unaffiliated are of the current generation (the inverse of your statement) only about 25% of the current generation is unaffiliated (I’m guessing on where the values are on the far right end of the line plot).

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By: Eric James Stone https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542576 Wed, 06 Sep 2017 22:52:39 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542576 Looking at the Pew numbers from 2007, I think I see how someone could accidentally come up with 1.9%.

If you expand the Mormon section (www.pewforum.org/religious-landscape-study/), it shows “1.6%” for Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, and “< 0.3%" for Other Mormon. If someone just took the numbers and added them together, they'd end up with 1.9%.

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542574 Wed, 06 Sep 2017 18:41:32 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542574 (Sorry for the title getting screwed up – it’s a bug in WordPress)

Fbisti, yeah, the summary and discussion of the poll was a bit underwhelming. As I mentioned they compare Mormon numbers with Pew but misrpresent the Pew numbers. Although as someone mentioned to me elsewhere the 1.9% and 1.6% are within the error bars of 0.4%. (Although barely) I definitely agree though that this could also be due to other artifacts. Which is why I’m a bit cautious pushing that 1.9% too much. Comparing different surveys with different methodologies is fraught with problems. So I’m not pinning anything on that 1.9%. I want to see the latest ARIS which I find to be the most reliable. (I have a lot of issues with Pew’s data as they get some pretty questionable results for some questions – there’s also questions of being biased by oversampling in Utah County with Pew.)

Typically in these self-identification studies Mormon doesn’t always mean LDS. Looking at both Pew and ARIS stuff there are reasons to think a few non-LDS ended up in the survey although it’s ambiguous. (Primarily answers to questions on doctrine in Pew)

Adano, yes, I just meant that Muslims and Buddhists skew younger than Mormons.

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By: fbisti https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542573 Wed, 06 Sep 2017 17:34:03 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542573 Interesting stuff, but should be interpreted with a bit of through a glass darkly vagueness.

I read through the full report. Based on my 30+ years of experience in survey research, I am impressed by the robust methodology. However (in my overly pedantic world), at least one of the authors’ own statements about some aspects of the findings isn’t fully accurate:
The study sampled the youngest adult currently residing in the household, so it is a sample of adults and cannot be used to conclude: “currently, 1.9% of the *public* identifies as Mormon.” The full questionnaire was not included in the report, but such a conclusion could only be made if there was a question determining what religious affiliation is claimed by each member of the household, adults and minors. So that conclusion should have read “of the adult public.”
Other comments…
-The key question used the term “Mormon” and therefore would include any fundamentalist or other historical spinoff religion that uses that moniker. I don’t know how this question has differed in terminology in other such studies.
-Differences in sampling and instrument (nature and size of the sampling frame and weighting; differences in wording) between studies can easily account for differences in results (1.4% vs 1.9%) that are technically statistically significant due to the large sample sizes. Though actual differences in such statistics can also be actual and the result of actual changes over time. So except for differences/errors introduced by the ever-increasing non-response bias (a growing proportion of sampled respondents willing to take the survey), only a study that is identical in design can (with high accuracy) identify changes resulting only from time.
Still, fascinating data. Thanks Clark

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By: JT https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542571 Wed, 06 Sep 2017 16:09:49 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542571 (There are obviously many other variables at play, but certainly a factor to take into consideration.)

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By: JT https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542570 Wed, 06 Sep 2017 16:08:14 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542570 Very interesting. It would be interesting to see what role life expectancy plays into some of these numbers. If American Mormons live, on average, almost a decade longer than other Americans, it would not be surprising to see Mormons skewing a little older.

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By: adano https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2017/09/clark-goble-3/#comment-542569 Wed, 06 Sep 2017 15:27:38 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=37185#comment-542569 Fascinating stuff. Just a minor quibble, but regarding this: “In particular non-Christian religions swamp our youth.”

Saying that Muslims (etc) tend to be young is not the same as saying that young people tend to be Muslim. You appear to be saying the second thing here. The figure supports the first statement but not the second.

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