Comments on: The Roots of the Current Election https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/ Truth Will Prevail Sun, 05 Aug 2018 23:56:25 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 By: Anonymous https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539792 Tue, 22 Nov 2016 17:57:15 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539792 I think concern about Trump is valid simply because he’s such an unknown factor. We don’t know what he really thinks (he comes out on three sides of any issue to ensure everyone projects their favorite idea on him). He has no real political history beyond being a fairly normal liberal up to 4-6 years ago. He’s erratic though and appears to be very concerned about personal slights. It’s worth saying then that he’s probably not the kind of dice roll one should roll for President. It’s also worth saying that most likely he won’t be as bad as portrayed though. I think the left is overreacting quite a bit.

That’s not to say there aren’t real issues with Trump. I find extremely worrisome that he hasn’t called out racist supporters as strongly as he should. (Contrary to some critics he has criticized them – just not as extensively as some of us would wish) I find some of his appointments worrisome. I’m also worried about how well he’ll separate his business interests from his role in government. While I think it’s a bit early for the criticisms there it is something we need to keep an eye on.

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By: Lurking Mike https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539787 Sun, 20 Nov 2016 00:20:34 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539787 If the last 3 comments are to believed, then why all the concern about Trump in the months before the election? Was Romney talking out of his hat just before the Utah primary? Does Ryan have a split personality disorder? Does it even matter who is elected?

It seems mighty convenient to have a change of heart right after the unexpected victory. Me thinks we are swallowing a wagon load of wishful thinking. Picking a team on this playground is easy, especially if you have 300 million to choose from. Scoring points and winning the game is an entirely a separate matter. Time will tell. I hope I am wrong.

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By: Chris G https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539782 Sat, 19 Nov 2016 02:20:31 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539782 I always thought Trump, while a gamble, had a decent chance of jumping back to his Democratic leanings to break the system via across the aisle compromise. That was why I wasn’t as worried about his presidency potential as most of my colleagues were.

Such reforming compromise seems to fit with his larger-than-life ego. It seems as if he would be quite content to undo both political parties in order to be seem as a historic level unifier (or if not a true unifier, a historic level repositioner).

Of course this is utter dissonance to both his perceived election mantra and the image now ingrained for him by media and opponents. However, I wouldn’t be the least surprised if he takes on, yet again, the task of upsetting one more layer of his stereotyped persona.

What I find funny is how much wailing is likely to occur from those being assimilated. Will Trump be respected for switching to conventional Democratic positions? Extreme Republicans will be angry. But their organization is in shambles. Extreme Democrats will be angry too – not necessarily about the positions themselves, but from the source from which they come and the threat this poses to their order.

Thus, my hope at least is that compromise, fuelled by hubris, conquers the extremes on both sides of the divide.

The next thing I see on the horizon is destruction of the Democratic ruling elite, not via de-energization and loss of political seats, but by breaking rigid party ties. But, I guess we’ll see.

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539781 Fri, 18 Nov 2016 23:00:09 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539781 By all accounts Trump is planning to do very popular things his first 100 days. He’s going to fix the problems in the ACA which in practice will mean minor changes but taxes instead of mandates and cosmetic solutions to people with preexisting conditions. He’ll claim he repealed and replaced it but won’t do enough to piss off his voters. So he’ll claim victory. He’ll start up a bunch of infrastructure projects which will give jobs to his core constituency. Again it’ll probably be inefficient but he’ll claim victory. He’ll do some symbolic things to NAFTA and trade with China and claim victory.

The biggest worry is that he’ll completely please his core constituency and then pick a fight with conservatives like Ryan who want a Tea Party revolution. He’ll say Ryan and company are trying to stop his policies and that he has no choice but join with Democrats like his good friend Schumer (who’s now Senate Minority Leader). He gets enough Ds and Rs to get his bills passed.

I laugh a bit at how everyone is acting like the sky is falling. The bigger worry is that he won’t be blatantly bad but will be just successful enough that people will turn a blind eye to the inevitable corruption, inefficiency and perhaps civil rights problems.

I think Trump is planning to be a President like Nixon 2.0. What people forget is that Nixon was very, very popular until the coverup of the Watergate breakin.

While it’s possible Trump will overreach and do something really stupid, I wouldn’t count on it. Brannon in particular is very forthright about starting a whole new political movement that’s part Jackson, part FDR, and part Reagan. It’ll be repellant to many of the intellectuals on the right and the left (including I’d assume people like myself). But I’m far from convinced it might not, for all its many dangers, be compelling to much of the country.

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By: chris g https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539780 Fri, 18 Nov 2016 22:33:10 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539780 Mike, why do we assume that Republicans voters will be unhappy with Trump’s likely Democratic positions? My suspicion is that people are less wedded to abstract policies than they are to adaptive groups (ones which offer protection, norm abuse detection, and some type of group level benefits). This isn’t something that is uniquely Republican nor Democratic. Rather it’s largely a function of “who has your back”.

Policy changes really don’t operate at this level. Neither, unfortunately do the consequences of policy. Rather, intent and perceived costly commitments are operative.

In one light both leaders might be hated, but in another both stood with a very definite subset of the population.

As balkanization progresses one normally expects such adaptive commitments to increase in strength. Group oriented altruism is selectively disadvantageous when a threshold of people act only for their own self interest. Identity politics and things like uni-dimensional racism, sexism, etc (base on punch-up instersectional metrics) are hyper-corrosive to pluralism. The only question is whether we’ve passed this critical point or not?

I don’t think this can be answered just by looking at the population as a whole. When you have elite classes that virulently compete with each other, you have trouble. When you get sub-sets not subject to population flow (think SJW or Alt-rights who won’t let someone of the opposite morality be part of their group), you typically have trouble. This is what I would really look at: which groups most enable ideological & moral diversity? (Skin color or gender diversity is, in my opinion, a false flag here).

The great fear with too much out-group oriented cosmopolitanism was that you would, via good intentions, pass the point where these systems could be pulled back. Similarly, the worry with too much in-group nationalism is that it destroys the pluralism necessary for large heterogeneous nations. Once both groups stopped listening and respecting each other’s essential contributions, things were doomed. Large groups of people operating harmoniously is not a stable state of affairs. This lesson has to get re-learned in painful ways.

At least, over time, the dynamics seem to show selection for more cooperative individuals: ones that know how to work with those of opposite group orientations.

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By: Lurking Mike https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539779 Fri, 18 Nov 2016 21:33:07 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539779 As a mind experiment consider the following. A conservative republican (think Pence) narrowly noses out a liberal democrat (think Kaine) in a few unlikely key states.The first captures the electoral college while the second wins the popular vote. How would this affect our thinking? That perhaps there are two views of what direction to go and we will try one for awhile instead of the other? Image an issues centered campaign without focus on the personal flaws of the candidates (which continue to hog the limelight now and block reasonable thought). Both candidates managed to select VP running mates without much political drag who somewhat reflected the party positions.

It was my personal wish and prayer that both Trump and Clinton would miraculous loose.(I think a majority of people might not be far from this idealistic hope.They were both so unacceptable). I knew that no matter what, the day after the election, it would be half true and cause for some celebration. But how to make the other half happen?

I think it would have been nearly impossible to impeach Clinton. We would be stuck with her for better or for worse in my opinion. But Trump? He has alienated most of the republican establishment. He isn’t even nominally conservative. Never have false expectations been higher for a new president. Oh yeh, every republican is participating in the unlikely victory celebrations, thoughtless to the months of mounting concern during the campaign. But soon the partying will be over. Trump is incapable of changing into another Bush, Romney, McCain, Kasich, Ryan, Reagan, Eisenhower, or anyone else look-alike. His know deficiencies (and frankly wickedness) will not lie dormant long and will start to bite us.

Remember 48 democrat senators would vote to impeach Trump tomorrow. We only need 19-20 republican senators to be given a couple of excuses to come to their senses and Trump will be out. Some of them ran against Trump and were treated badly by him and harbor quiet anger for it behind current insincere smiles.

Of greater concern is the fact that the system is broken. Neither party, after years of campaigning and billions of dollars, anointed an acceptable candidate. The lap dog media is morally bankrupt and partly but not entirely to blame. After perpetual bias and miscalling the election, who can trust them with anything? Why are we still listening?

The witless voting public in both parties during the primaries was most culpable for this fiasco. Too many of us lost our freedom to select a decent candidate this time around. How do we prevent another election worse than this one in the future? Trump ain’t the man to do it. Otherwise our republic is doomed.

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539766 Thu, 17 Nov 2016 23:03:52 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539766 I should note that he’s more on the behavioral economics side of things. I’m a bit skeptical of that so our views don’t totally line up. And there are some good critiques of his thought. So it’s not unambiguous that he’s right on the things he writes about. More significantly one might think nudges are better than heavy handed regulation for most things yet simultaneously think a heavier hand is demanded for some things.

A good common sense rule of thumb, in my mind, is that if you are scared about what Donald Trump might do with some regulatory power that then that should never have been a regulatory power with no checks, balances or due process.

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By: Michael H https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539761 Thu, 17 Nov 2016 18:59:33 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539761 Word. I’ll look take a gander. Thanks!

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539756 Thu, 17 Nov 2016 17:41:59 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539756 Richard Thaler is one economist who comes to mind who has somewhat similar views to mine. (Haven’t had time to do much, but he’s an obvious one I should have thought of immediately)

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539735 Thu, 17 Nov 2016 00:32:15 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539735 Oh, I misunderstood. If you want someone who thinks *exactly* like myself then I don’t know. Certainly I can think of many who make the critiques I’ve made. Where they place the limits on regulation I can’t say. I’m swamped this week so give me a little more time. (I’ve zero time to do research this week) I can but say that most economists I read and hear seem to recognize the problem of over-regulation (which honestly seems a pretty mainstream view) yet don’t seem to advocate the kind of radical deregulation that libertarians want. (Not to ignore the libertarian economists mind you)

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By: Michael H https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539728 Tue, 15 Nov 2016 23:11:34 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539728 Sorry, I mean, “before going on to say* that those on the left…”

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By: Michael H https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539727 Tue, 15 Nov 2016 23:08:29 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539727 Clark, I’m scratching my head. I asked you to name a conservative economist in lieu of Piketty who embodies your economic conservatism and you name Friedman before going on to those on the left consistently fail to do their homework. I was simply trying to qualify your stance by pointing to Friedman’s radical views on deregulation that are without a doubt more central to his legacy/impact than his views on the negative income tax.

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By: Clark Goble https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539725 Tue, 15 Nov 2016 16:24:46 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539725 Sorry for the delay — been out of town.

Michael, you’re attacking a strawman still. I don’t favor uncritical deregulation. But I definitely think regulations are a huge issue even if not the only one.

John F, good point in terms of absolute vote primarily due to 3rd parties taking many more votes this year. I was more thinking that in terms of minorities, Trump got a larger share, and in terms of winning Trump obviously did while Romney got beat by 4 points by Obama.

Lois, there are two issues. One is why particular jobs within a particular business left. Outsourcing and automation are clearly part of that issue. However as industries change typically new jobs are created in new industries. That’s what’s not happening. It’s new businesses when they shift from moderate sized to being larger that’s typically the mover of job creation. Yet business creation has been low and hasn’t recovered the last decade. This isn’t just a Republican worry but has been focused on by liberals as well. So when we had at the beginning of the 20th century a massive shift from agriculture to assembly lines the new businesses were there to hire the people displaced by rising agriculture productivity. That’s just not happening today.

To the fillibuster, you realize Harry Reid already killed it for judicial appointments, right? And that liberals have wanted it removed for a long time.

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By: Michael H https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539723 Mon, 14 Nov 2016 13:26:47 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539723 Clark: Some interesting perspective from this morning’s Times on how the type of intensive financial deregulation that Friedman was key to popularizing is playing a hand in the inequality-fueled demagoguery of modern times: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/opinion/the-incendiary-appeal-of-demagoguery-in-our-time.html?_r=0.

Again, while it’s clear that deregulation is almost always a boon to GDP, anyone who suggests that it is our best strategy for combating inequality is on shaky ground. The somewhat cautious deregulation you seem to advocate for in 23 doesn’t sound inherently destructive, but I’m not seeing signs that Trump’s team, Paul Ryan, and Mitch McConnell are so mindful. Their almost religious faith in the benevolence and fairness of the market have them thinking that the more deregulation, the better.

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By: john f. https://www.timesandseasons.org/index.php/2016/11/the-roots-of-the-current-election/#comment-539722 Sat, 12 Nov 2016 23:56:07 +0000 http://www.timesandseasons.org/?p=36017#comment-539722 Trump didn’t outperform Romney, Clark. He got 47.1% and Romney got 47.2%.

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