Speaking of conventional interpretation, am I the only one who reads this as a story of exploitation of the desperate by the self-righteous? I wonder if pyramid schemes do so well in Utah because of an Esau-Jacob effect.

As you noted (50) there are some very interesting religious correlations. So there’s a fairly strong wealth/religiosity inversion and a strong innovation/religiosity inversion. For both those trends the US is a huge outlier.

The issue of education and religion in the gss is limited as you note (49). There’s a relationship but a small one but the key point is that the relationship though weak is the opposite of what most people expect. i.e. what’s really at issue is the assumption more education = less religion, whereas as the paper you linked to notes that’s been falsified. Further the analysis of the Nones shows a significant group who are poorly educated and not religious. But then there’s an other group very educated but not religious. We need to not conflate the two. Further we also need to distinguish between the religiously disengaged and the agnostics/atheists who care enough to say they have some clear ideas on the topic. It gets more interesting when you dig down yet further. There’s a huge gap between STEM and non-STEM fields in terms of religiosity. This phenomena tends to appear with those getting education beyond a Bachelor’s. I have a post on religiosity among elites from a few months back.

Likewise the wealthier one is the more likely one is to be religious.

If you look at all countries, there is a negative correlation between religion and wealth:

In poorer nations, religion remains central to the lives of individuals, while secular perspectives are more common in richer nations.

As I said there is an education aspect but not the way most assume. College graduates are the group most likely to be involved in religion

You should read this study, which shows the correlation between higher education and religiosity to be rather tenuous.

Many members seem to believe that the more meetings and activities you have, the more “active” you are and the more you are “magnifying your calling.” There is also a notion, perhaps calculated, that if you keep every member busy at church or doing church callings and assignments, they are less likely to stray. That may be true to an extent. But I’ve seen it backfire. And either way, the fallout is that we don’t spend nearly enough time with the people the church teaches are the most important: our families. And we don’t have many opportunities to share the gospel because this hamster-wheel existence means we spend too much time at church with fellow ward members to expand our circle of friends/acquaintances.

For that data set 35% of people in general are active in sports or recreation leagues while 17% of the Nones are. 34% are active in charitable or volunteer organizations like Habitat for Humanity while 15% of Nones are. 30% are active in community groups or neighborhood associates while 11% of the Nones are.

As I said there is an education aspect but not the way most assume. College graduates are the group most likely to be involved in religion. Likewise the wealthier one is the more likely one is to be religious.

Maybe I was simply oblivious to these things, as I grew up in an inner city ward that could not afford these things, and now live in an extremely affluent area in Southern California where events are year round due to excellent weather conditions. It has surprised me to say the least, but since my wife and I are not sports people, I suppose it’s easy to judge. To coin a phrase from President Uchtdorf, I suppose I simply sin differently.

My experience is the more I miss church, the easier it becomes.

Not sure what this comment has to do with the “nones” but I think a lot of LDS are becoming “nones” themselves indirectly.

One thing to keep in mind is that there are several different demographics in the Nones. For example there’s a very big difference between the Nones who are in the under $30,000 income demographic and those who are above. The under $30,000 group make up 40% of the Nones. Also 45% have only a high school diploma or less. So contrary to what some might suspect the main rise in the Nones is among the less educated and less wealthy.

Also we have to distinguish those who consider themselves part of a religion but don’t attend regularly from those who don’t consider themselves anything.

This is all very significant and probably has a lot to do with feelings of alienation. While the media hasn’t portrayed it that way, to my eyes a lot of this seems like a very class situated demographic change. While women Nones are rising most tend to be men as well.

While it’s just a guess I’d expect that it’s primarily among the better educated and wealthy that there’s a shift from religious to simply adopting different social networks such as Sunday sports, political activism, art or whatever.

What’s of more concern to me personally is the other demographics as I sincerely feel like a huge group of America is just becoming alienated entirely from America. It makes me worry about something like the rise of Orwell’s Proles. The social integration that was more present in the 20th century is disappearing. (And it was never as good as it should have been even then)

I’ve been active LDS my entire life. Like you, skipping church was never an option. Only in the past couple of years with one of my children getting more involved in travel sports have we faced a conflict on Sunday scheduling. I feel strongly about the principle, “teach them correct principles and let them govern themselves.” (Side note: I wish more LDS leaders would take this approach, for example, to modest dress standards instead of the prevalent approach of dictating hyper-specific black & white rules that have the unintended result of making youth more self-conscious and critical of their physical appearance.) Our solution to Sunday sports has been to attend church whenever possible (we rarely miss) and we lean in favor of church when there is conflict. But there have been a few times when we’ve chosen to travel to away games instead of church, and I honestly can’t say that I missed church. LDS services in our ward have become so business-like that they hardly feel worshipful or uplifting. I’m sure I’m accused of “fence-sitting” or otherwise being judged by other LDS for trying to have it both ways. And I’m sure people will say you get out of Sunday what you put into it. I just know there are without question Sundays that I feel closer to God by being outdoors with my family, free from the stress of meeting-after-meeting-after-meeting church.

There is a generation of youth growing up who aren’t going to church because their parents are choosing sports as their church. One reason the LDS numbers remain flat could be due to the LDS emphasis on keeping the Sabbath holy. I grew up in the LDS church, in varying levels of activity, and can say that church attendance, or having a church home, has never been an option. Our church is a vital, important part of our family life. Trading church for other Sunday commitments was, and never will be, an option.