Comments on: New Apostles: Uchtdorf & Bednar

By: Geoff Matthews

Geoff Matthews — Fri, 15 Oct 2004 04:08:01 +0000

As a Canadian, I’m sick of my birth country wallowing in an inferiority complex. It is contrary to humility to hold that someone else’s culture is undesirable simply because they are “the other”, whether that “other” is black, communist, jewish, hispanic, catholic, protestant, non-mormon or whatnot. U.S. culture dominates, but what part of it? Utah culture is different from Southern culture is different from New England culture is different from California culture (take your pick of cultures there), etc.
Should we consider “Austin Powers” as indicative of Canadian culture? Or anything with William Shatner? Or any movie directed by James Cameron?
I may be Canadian, but I recognise that there are some significant differences between my POV and that of someone raised in Newfoundland or Quebec, or even Ontario (which may as well be Canada).
But then, this is terribly off topic for this forum.

By: Scott Steed

Scott Steed — Mon, 11 Oct 2004 21:50:26 +0000

I can’t read actuary tables, but I can see certain trends when it comes to the longevity of Chruch Presidents and members of the Quorum of the Twelve. I found according to the law of averages that modern apostles (Those who were called since 1960) tend to live to the median age 0f 78.6. Our Church Presidents (excluding Harold B. Lee) tend to live to an average age of 91.

If I were to follow these trends than I would conclude that Thomas S. Monson would one dsy serve as President of the Church, (Most of us know that he is a type 2 diabetic) and that he may end up serving a very long time (again according to trends). If the law of averages hold up, then Dallin H. Oaks would succeed President Monson, and Jeffery R. Holland would succeed Dallin H. Oaks. According to my own trend configuration, Elder Bednar would succeed Holland.

Of course none of this means anything, because ultimately the Lord decides who lives and dies when, but according to the law of averages the following Brethren have lived longer than the average. Predident Hinckley, President Faust, Elder Packer, Elder Wirthlin, and Elder Nelson. The next to passs away will probably occur between now and the end of 2005.

How I came up with this trend assessment. I looked the the names of every member of the first presidency and the quorum of the 12 from 1960, looked at the age at death and did the math. I know my way is not very scientific, but it puts my guesses in the ball park.

By: Dan Richards

Dan Richards — Mon, 11 Oct 2004 14:36:51 +0000

Sure, the thread has been dead for nearly a week, but I can’t think of another thread suitable for posting the following statistics I just assembled:

5.6: Average number of children of members of the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles

7.3: Average number of children of the six most senior members of the Quorum

3.8: Average number of children of the six junior members of the Quorum.

I think these statistics are an interesting reflection of the changes in Mormon birthrates generally. I think that the Mormon families of the future will be smaller, and I see a tendency among my peers of childbearing age toward families in the 2-5 child range rather than the 4-7 range that seemed to be common in my parents’ generation.

By: Kim Siever

Kim Siever — Wed, 06 Oct 2004 05:05:08 +0000

I think the point USA USA is that you brought up a red herring to the discussion. I don’t think anyone absolutely had a problem with you saying something negative; however, it had nothing to do with the conversation at hand. It seemed to be nothing but an attempt to take advantage of an opportunity to get in a quick jab.

By: Larry

Larry — Wed, 06 Oct 2004 04:49:26 +0000

All Americans are Democrats and love Kerry! Get a life!

By: U.S.A.! U.S.A.!

U.S.A.! U.S.A.! — Wed, 06 Oct 2004 02:54:57 +0000

“Your comment is precisely why so many â€œforeignersâ€? donâ€™t have anything nice to say about your country”

Larry logik:

Joe Canada says x negative about U.S.

Joe U.S. says x negative about Canada.

Joe Canada therefore justified not only in original x, but in all x’s to ever follow.

By: Larry

Larry — Wed, 06 Oct 2004 02:26:25 +0000

There was a time when I was young that my national pride was tied up in our historical ties to the early explorers like Champlain and the couer-de-bois, the Hudson Bay Company, our British roots, our French roots, the NWMP, Father Lacombe, the Cree, the Blackfoot, Laura Secord, the war of 1812, our roles in the 2 world wars (my grandfather was at Vimy Ridge, my Dad was the radio man for the artillery going thru Italy and was present at all the major battles) and the story of the Red River pioneers etc.
Today my children and grandchildren go huh!? Trudeau changed the face of Canadian culture by making it multicultured and changed the face of education to everything but our history.

By: Kim Siever

Kim Siever — Tue, 05 Oct 2004 18:22:01 +0000

“What do you think has been the effect for Canadian cultural strength of such things as trading Dominion Day for Canada Day?”

I think such a move went further to strengthen national pride and patriotism. Does that equate into strengthening culture? I am doubtful that it does. I am prone to think that culture is more than patriotism.

By: John Mansfield

John Mansfield — Tue, 05 Oct 2004 13:47:45 +0000

Vimy Ridge and Dieppe are part of the heritage whose loss I am wondering about. I understand that Trudeau was ambivalent about Canada’s role in liberating France. Martin confused Normandy with Norway.

By: John Mansfield

John Mansfield — Tue, 05 Oct 2004 13:17:51 +0000

David and Ed,

I tried again. This time I calculated the probability that in the year the current 52-year-old dies, his 14 seniors are dead. If the 52-year-old and a senior die in the same year, tie goes to the youngster. I get at 21.2% probability that the 52-year-old survives by 2035, 38.3% by 2040, and 53.7% by 2070. My mortality model is skewing into the future the death of very old men, but my result for the question (Will the Bednar-aged man ever be the survivor?) is close to that from David’s actuary friend. I am also comforted by your reminder, David, of the power of ballpark estimates using simple, reasonable assumptions.

One caveat in all this is that mortality rates are changing. In the CDC’s final report on 2001 deaths, there is an interesting figure showing death rates by sex and age group since 1955. For nearly all groups, there has been a continual and large decline in mortality. I had no idea death had changed so much, even within the last twenty years.